In a constructed arithmetic model the price of an asset changes by currency units between times and , where is a standard Brownian motion and time is in years. A trader holds units for the first half year, and for the second half year holds unit after a rise and units after a fall. The gain over the year is a sum of positions times price changes, but a position adjusted continuously needs a limit of such sums, and the limit depends on when each position is chosen. This lesson builds the Itô integral from positions fixed at the left endpoint of each interval, proves that such a gain has mean zero and second moment , which is here, and shows what goes wrong when positions are chosen with hindsight.
Key terms
Simple predictable integrand
Definition Fix a filtered probability space , a horizon and a standard Brownian motion with respect to . A simple predictable integrand on is a process
with a partition and coefficients such that each is -measurable and . Its stochastic integral is defined to be the finite sum
and the integral up to a time is the same sum with every partition time replaced by its minimum with . Each product is square integrable, since is independent of and so . Each product also has mean zero, because the known factor comes out of the conditional expectation,
In plain words A simple predictable integrand is a trading rule that changes its position at finitely many dates and fixes each position with the information available when it is opened. Its integral is the trading gain against a price that moves like , and each term pairs a position that is already known with a price move that has not happened yet.
Example The holding from the opening uses the partition with , and if and otherwise. The coefficient depends only on , which is known at time , so the integrand is simple and predictable. With its gain is
A rule that holds units when the price will rise over the second half year is not predictable, because its second position depends on , which is not known at time .
Itô isometry
Definition For a simple predictable integrand on with square-integrable coefficients,
The proof expands the square of the sum. A cross term with has mean zero, because conditioning on fixes and leaves the factor , and the square integrability of every product makes these cross terms integrable. A diagonal term gives
and these terms add up to . The name says that the map from to its integral preserves norms, the norm of integrands and the norm of random variables . Applied to a difference , the isometry turns closeness of two integrands into closeness of their integrals, and after the extension in the next two cards it holds for every square-integrable integrand. Applying it to and and subtracting gives the covariance form
For integrals against two Brownian motions and of the same filtration with correlation , meaning , the right side gets the factor . Since the integral has mean zero, its second moment is its variance.
In plain words The variance of a trading gain against Brownian noise is the expected sum of squared positions times elapsed time. Gains from different periods are uncorrelated, though not independent, even when later positions react to earlier gains, so only the squared positions count.
Example In the constructed holding the squared position is on the first half year. On the second it is or with probability each, since . So
and the gain has mean , second moment in squared currency units and standard deviation currency units. A finite model shows the same arithmetic. Replace each half-year increment by an independent variable equal to or with probability each, a model that is not Brownian but has the same conditional mean and variance over each step. The four equally likely gains are , , and times , with average and average square .
Square-integrable integrand
Definition A process on is a square-integrable integrand when it is predictable, meaning measurable with respect to the predictable sigma algebra on , and
Two such processes and are identified when . Every continuous adapted process is predictable, so for example qualifies, with by Fubini’s theorem. The simple predictable integrands with square-integrable coefficients belong to this class and are dense in it, meaning that for each square-integrable integrand there are simple ones with . This density is an approximation result stated here without proof. The weaker condition that almost surely holds for every continuous adapted process. It is enough for the local construction described in the next card, but not for the isometry.
In plain words The class contains the predictable trading rules whose expected sum of squared positions times time is finite. That number is the second moment of the gain, so every rule in the class produces a gain with finite variance.
Example The process on is continuous and adapted, so is finite on every path. Its expectation is not. For the normal law of gives
and for every this expectation is infinite, so by Tonelli’s theorem. This integrand is not square integrable on , and only the local construction applies to it. By contrast, has on .
Itô integral
Definition Let be a square-integrable integrand on , write for the integral over of a simple predictable integrand , and choose simple predictable integrands with . The isometry applied to gives
so the integrals form a Cauchy sequence in . That space is complete, so the sequence has a mean-square limit, and the Itô integral is defined as
with the limit taken in . Two approximating sequences give the same limit, because interleaving them gives a third approximating sequence whose integrals must also converge, so the definition does not depend on the choice. The integral is linear in , has mean zero and satisfies the isometry for every square-integrable , and the integral up to is the integral of . Its values are random variables defined up to sets of probability zero, and the process has a version with continuous paths, a result stated here. If is only predictable with almost surely, the integral is defined by localization. With the stopping times , each stopped integrand is square integrable, the stopped integrals agree where they overlap, and they join into one process. That process is a local martingale, and the expectation identities of the square-integrable construction can fail for it. General localization is beyond this lesson.
In plain words A continuously adjusted position is approximated by positions that change at finitely many dates, and the gains of the approximations settle down in mean square, because the isometry turns closeness of the positions into closeness of the gains. The Itô integral is the limiting gain. It is a random variable defined up to probability zero, not a pathwise Riemann-Stieltjes integral, which Brownian paths of infinite variation would not allow.
Example For on , take the left-endpoint step processes for with . Since ,
so the sums converge in mean square to , whose value the last card computes. The isometry gives its second moment before that value is known.
Martingale property of the Itô integral
Definition Let be a square-integrable integrand on and for . Then is a square-integrable martingale with respect to under , with , so
and in particular . For a simple integrand, refine the partition so that and are partition times. Then is a sum of terms with , and the tower rule gives
For a general the property passes to the limit, because in for each and conditional expectation does not increase mean-square distances. The same argument gives the conditional isometry
If is deterministic with , then is normal with mean and variance , since it is a mean-square limit of sums of independent normal variables. A random predictable keeps the martingale property but in general loses the normal law. When only almost surely, is in general only a local martingale.
In plain words Given everything known at time , the expected future gain of a square-integrable predictable strategy against a driftless Brownian price is zero, however the strategy reacts to the past. A pricing argument that sets the expectation of a stochastic integral to zero needs this square integrability, or another condition that makes the local martingale a true martingale.
Example In the constructed holding, , and given the second-half gain has conditional mean , so . Its conditional variance is after a rise and after a fall, and the average of these two values is the second-half contribution to the isometry. The gain is not normal. Expanding , the terms with odd powers of and the term have mean zero. The remaining term has mean , because , so
using and . A centered normal variable has third moment zero, so the law of the gain is skewed to the left, because the larger position is held after a fall.
Left-endpoint convention
Definition The Itô integral evaluates the integrand at the left endpoint of each interval. For a continuous adapted process , the sums over partitions of converge in probability to as the mesh tends to zero, a result stated here. For the limit can be computed. Each increment of the square satisfies
and summing over a partition of telescopes, since , to
The quadratic sum converges to in mean square, because the squared increments are independent with , so its mean-square distance from is , at most twice times the mesh. Hence
Right-endpoint sums exceed the left-endpoint sums by exactly , so they converge to , and the gap does not shrink as the grid is refined. Sums that use the average telescope to exactly for every partition, the value of the Stratonovich integral, whose theory is beyond this lesson.
In plain words The left endpoint is the position chosen before the price move, which is what a trader can actually do. The right endpoint uses the price at the end of the interval and so knows the move in advance, and in this arithmetic model that hindsight earns on average exactly the elapsed time, however fine the grid.
Example On a constructed path with the three increments , and , the levels at the left endpoints are , and , so the left-endpoint sum is . The final level is and the quadratic sum is , and indeed . The right-endpoint sum is , larger by exactly the quadratic sum , and the average-endpoint sum is . These identities hold exactly on every path and every partition. Only the replacement of the quadratic sum by needs the limit.
Check yourself
- Let . Find the law of and the probability .
Show the answer
The integrand is deterministic with
so is normal with mean and variance . The threshold lies standard deviations above the mean, and
- Compute with the isometry, and check the answer with the formula from the left-endpoint card.
Show the answer
The integrand is square integrable, and by Fubini’s theorem
The formula gives , whose mean is because . Its second moment is
the same value, using and for a standard normal variable.
- Change the constructed rule so that the second-half position is units when the price will rise over the second half year and unit otherwise, and let with this new . Find , and explain why is not an Itô integral even though is still .
Show the answer
Write , which is normal with mean and variance . The second term equals when and otherwise. By symmetry , so
about , while has mean . So currency units. The squared positions are and then or with probability each, so as before, but the zero mean and the isometry are theorems about predictable integrands. Here depends on , which is not known at time , so the step is false. The second moment of happens to be as well, but its variance is . A positive average gain from a rule that looks ahead is the continuous-time form of look-ahead bias in a backtest.