Unit 5, lesson 36

The Ito integral and isometry

How the Itô integral is built from simple predictable integrands and mean-square limits, why the Itô isometry and the martingale property hold for square-integrable integrands, and why the left endpoint matters.

  • Video 36
  • Itô integrals and stochastic differential equations

In a constructed arithmetic model the price of an asset changes by Wt−WsW_t - W_s currency units between times ss and tt, where WW is a standard Brownian motion and time is in years. A trader holds 22 units for the first half year, and for the second half year holds 11 unit after a rise and 33 units after a fall. The gain over the year is a sum of positions times price changes, but a position adjusted continuously needs a limit of such sums, and the limit depends on when each position is chosen. This lesson builds the Itô integral from positions fixed at the left endpoint of each interval, proves that such a gain has mean zero and second moment E∫01Ht2 dt\mathbb{E}\int_0^1 H_t^2 \, dt, which is 4.54.5 here, and shows what goes wrong when positions are chosen with hindsight.

Key terms

Simple predictable integrand

Definition Fix a filtered probability space (Ω,F,(Ft)t≥0,P)(\Omega, \mathcal{F}, (\mathcal{F}_t)_{t \ge 0}, \mathbb{P}), a horizon T>0T > 0 and a standard Brownian motion WW with respect to (Ft)(\mathcal{F}_t). A simple predictable integrand on [0,T][0, T] is a process

Ht=∑k=0n−1Hk 1(tk,tk+1](t)H_t = \sum_{k=0}^{n-1} H_k \, \mathbf{1}_{(t_k, t_{k+1}]}(t)

with a partition 0=t0<t1<⋯<tn=T0 = t_0 < t_1 < \dots < t_n = T and coefficients such that each HkH_k is Ftk\mathcal{F}_{t_k}-measurable and E[Hk2]<∞\mathbb{E}[H_k^2] < \infty. Its stochastic integral is defined to be the finite sum

∫0THt dWt=∑k=0n−1Hk ΔWk,ΔWk=Wtk+1−Wtk,\begin{aligned} \int_0^T H_t \, dW_t &= \sum_{k=0}^{n-1} H_k \, \Delta W_k , \\[0.4em] \Delta W_k &= W_{t_{k+1}} - W_{t_k} , \end{aligned}

and the integral up to a time t≤Tt \le T is the same sum with every partition time replaced by its minimum with tt. Each product HkΔWkH_k \Delta W_k is square integrable, since ΔWk\Delta W_k is independent of Ftk\mathcal{F}_{t_k} and so E[Hk2ΔWk2]=E[Hk2] (tk+1−tk)\mathbb{E}[H_k^2 \Delta W_k^2] = \mathbb{E}[H_k^2]\,(t_{k+1} - t_k). Each product also has mean zero, because the known factor comes out of the conditional expectation,

E[HkΔWk∣Ftk]=Hk E[ΔWk∣Ftk]=0.\begin{aligned} &\mathbb{E}[H_k \Delta W_k \mid \mathcal{F}_{t_k}] \\[0.4em] &\quad = H_k \, \mathbb{E}[\Delta W_k \mid \mathcal{F}_{t_k}] = 0 . \end{aligned}

In plain words A simple predictable integrand is a trading rule that changes its position at finitely many dates and fixes each position with the information available when it is opened. Its integral is the trading gain against a price that moves like WW, and each term pairs a position that is already known with a price move that has not happened yet.

Example The holding from the opening uses the partition 0<0.5<10 < 0.5 < 1 with H0=2H_0 = 2, and H1=1H_1 = 1 if W0.5>0W_{0.5} > 0 and H1=3H_1 = 3 otherwise. The coefficient H1H_1 depends only on W0.5W_{0.5}, which is known at time 0.50.5, so the integrand is simple and predictable. With ΔW1=W1−W0.5\Delta W_1 = W_1 - W_{0.5} its gain is

G=∫01Ht dWt=2W0.5+H1 ΔW1.\begin{aligned} G &= \int_0^1 H_t \, dW_t \\[0.4em] &= 2 W_{0.5} + H_1 \, \Delta W_1 . \end{aligned}

A rule that holds 33 units when the price will rise over the second half year is not predictable, because its second position depends on ΔW1\Delta W_1, which is not known at time 0.50.5.

Itô isometry

Definition For a simple predictable integrand HH on [0,T][0, T] with square-integrable coefficients,

E[(∫0THt dWt)2]=E[∫0THt2 dt].\begin{aligned} &\mathbb{E}\Bigl[\Bigl(\int_0^T H_t \, dW_t\Bigr)^2\Bigr] \\[0.4em] &\quad = \mathbb{E}\Bigl[\int_0^T H_t^2 \, dt\Bigr]. \end{aligned}

The proof expands the square of the sum. A cross term with j<kj < k has mean zero, because conditioning on Ftk\mathcal{F}_{t_k} fixes HjΔWjHkH_j \Delta W_j H_k and leaves the factor E[ΔWk∣Ftk]=0\mathbb{E}[\Delta W_k \mid \mathcal{F}_{t_k}] = 0, and the square integrability of every product HiΔWiH_i \Delta W_i makes these cross terms integrable. A diagonal term gives

E[Hk2ΔWk2]=E[Hk2 E[ΔWk2∣Ftk]]=E[Hk2] (tk+1−tk),\begin{aligned} &\mathbb{E}[H_k^2 \Delta W_k^2] \\[0.4em] &\quad = \mathbb{E}\bigl[H_k^2 \, \mathbb{E}[\Delta W_k^2 \mid \mathcal{F}_{t_k}]\bigr] \\[0.4em] &\quad = \mathbb{E}[H_k^2] \, (t_{k+1} - t_k), \end{aligned}

and these terms add up to E∫0THt2 dt\mathbb{E}\int_0^T H_t^2 \, dt. The name says that the map from HH to its integral preserves norms, the norm (E∫0THt2 dt)1/2\bigl(\mathbb{E}\int_0^T H_t^2 \, dt\bigr)^{1/2} of integrands and the norm (E[Y2])1/2\bigl(\mathbb{E}[Y^2]\bigr)^{1/2} of random variables YY. Applied to a difference H−KH - K, the isometry turns closeness of two integrands into closeness of their integrals, and after the extension in the next two cards it holds for every square-integrable integrand. Applying it to H+KH + K and H−KH - K and subtracting gives the covariance form

E[∫0THt dWt∫0TKt dWt]=E[∫0THtKt dt].\begin{aligned} &\mathbb{E}\Bigl[\int_0^T H_t \, dW_t \int_0^T K_t \, dW_t\Bigr] \\[0.4em] &\quad = \mathbb{E}\Bigl[\int_0^T H_t K_t \, dt\Bigr]. \end{aligned}

For integrals against two Brownian motions WW and BB of the same filtration with correlation ρ\rho, meaning [W,B]t=ρt[W, B]_t = \rho t, the right side gets the factor ρ\rho. Since the integral has mean zero, its second moment is its variance.

In plain words The variance of a trading gain against Brownian noise is the expected sum of squared positions times elapsed time. Gains from different periods are uncorrelated, though not independent, even when later positions react to earlier gains, so only the squared positions count.

Example In the constructed holding the squared position is 44 on the first half year. On the second it is 11 or 99 with probability 12\tfrac12 each, since P(W0.5>0)=12\mathbb{P}(W_{0.5} > 0) = \tfrac12. So

E[∫01Ht2 dt]=4⋅0.5+12(1+9)⋅0.5=2+2.5=4.5,\begin{aligned} &\mathbb{E}\Bigl[\int_0^1 H_t^2 \, dt\Bigr] \\[0.4em] &= 4 \cdot 0.5 + \tfrac12 (1 + 9) \cdot 0.5 \\[0.4em] &= 2 + 2.5 = 4.5 , \end{aligned}

and the gain has mean 00, second moment 4.54.5 in squared currency units and standard deviation 4.5≈2.121\sqrt{4.5} \approx 2.121 currency units. A finite model shows the same arithmetic. Replace each half-year increment by an independent variable equal to 0.5\sqrt{0.5} or −0.5-\sqrt{0.5} with probability 12\tfrac12 each, a model that is not Brownian but has the same conditional mean and variance over each step. The four equally likely gains are 33, 11, 11 and −5-5 times 0.5\sqrt{0.5}, with average 00 and average square 14(9+1+1+25)⋅0.5=4.5\tfrac14 (9 + 1 + 1 + 25) \cdot 0.5 = 4.5.

Square-integrable integrand

Definition A process HH on [0,T][0, T] is a square-integrable integrand when it is predictable, meaning measurable with respect to the predictable sigma algebra on [0,T]×Ω[0, T] \times \Omega, and

∥H∥2=E[∫0THt2 dt]<∞.\begin{aligned} \lVert H \rVert^2 &= \mathbb{E}\Bigl[\int_0^T H_t^2 \, dt\Bigr] \\[0.4em] &< \infty . \end{aligned}

Two such processes HH and KK are identified when ∥H−K∥=0\lVert H - K \rVert = 0. Every continuous adapted process is predictable, so for example Ht=WtH_t = W_t qualifies, with ∥W∥2=∫0Tt dt=T2/2\lVert W \rVert^2 = \int_0^T t \, dt = T^2/2 by Fubini’s theorem. The simple predictable integrands with square-integrable coefficients belong to this class and are dense in it, meaning that for each square-integrable integrand HH there are simple ones H(n)H^{(n)} with ∥H(n)−H∥→0\lVert H^{(n)} - H \rVert \to 0. This density is an approximation result stated here without proof. The weaker condition that ∫0THt2 dt<∞\int_0^T H_t^2 \, dt < \infty almost surely holds for every continuous adapted process. It is enough for the local construction described in the next card, but not for the isometry.

In plain words The class contains the predictable trading rules whose expected sum of squared positions times time is finite. That number is the second moment of the gain, so every rule in the class produces a gain with finite variance.

Example The process Ht=exp⁡(Wt2)H_t = \exp(W_t^2) on [0,1][0, 1] is continuous and adapted, so ∫01Ht2 dt\int_0^1 H_t^2 \, dt is finite on every path. Its expectation is not. For 0≤t<140 \le t < \tfrac14 the normal law of WtW_t gives

E[e2Wt2]=11−4t,\mathbb{E}\bigl[e^{2 W_t^2}\bigr] = \frac{1}{\sqrt{1 - 4t}} ,

and for every t≥14t \ge \tfrac14 this expectation is infinite, so ∥H∥2=∫01E[Ht2] dt=∞\lVert H \rVert^2 = \int_0^1 \mathbb{E}[H_t^2] \, dt = \infty by Tonelli’s theorem. This integrand is not square integrable on [0,1][0, 1], and only the local construction applies to it. By contrast, Ht=WtH_t = W_t has ∥H∥2=12\lVert H \rVert^2 = \tfrac12 on [0,1][0, 1].

Itô integral

Definition Let HH be a square-integrable integrand on [0,T][0, T], write I(K)I(K) for the integral over [0,T][0, T] of a simple predictable integrand KK, and choose simple predictable integrands H(n)H^{(n)} with ∥H(n)−H∥→0\lVert H^{(n)} - H \rVert \to 0. The isometry applied to H(n)−H(m)H^{(n)} - H^{(m)} gives

E[(I(H(n))−I(H(m)))2]=∥H(n)−H(m)∥2→0,\begin{aligned} &\mathbb{E}\bigl[(I(H^{(n)}) - I(H^{(m)}))^2\bigr] \\[0.4em] &\quad = \lVert H^{(n)} - H^{(m)} \rVert^2 \to 0 , \end{aligned}

so the integrals form a Cauchy sequence in L2(P)L^2(\mathbb{P}). That space is complete, so the sequence has a mean-square limit, and the Itô integral is defined as

∫0THt dWt=lim⁡n→∞∫0THt(n) dWt\begin{aligned} &\int_0^T H_t \, dW_t \\[0.4em] &\quad = \lim_{n \to \infty} \int_0^T H^{(n)}_t \, dW_t \end{aligned}

with the limit taken in L2(P)L^2(\mathbb{P}). Two approximating sequences give the same limit, because interleaving them gives a third approximating sequence whose integrals must also converge, so the definition does not depend on the choice. The integral is linear in HH, has mean zero and satisfies the isometry for every square-integrable HH, and the integral up to t≤Tt \le T is the integral of H1[0,t]H \mathbf{1}_{[0, t]}. Its values are random variables defined up to sets of probability zero, and the process t↦∫0tHs dWst \mapsto \int_0^t H_s \, dW_s has a version with continuous paths, a result stated here. If HH is only predictable with ∫0THt2 dt<∞\int_0^T H_t^2 \, dt < \infty almost surely, the integral is defined by localization. With the stopping times τn=inf⁡{t≥0:∫0tHs2 ds≥n}∧T\tau_n = \inf\{t \ge 0 : \int_0^t H_s^2 \, ds \ge n\} \wedge T, each stopped integrand H1[0,τn]H \mathbf{1}_{[0, \tau_n]} is square integrable, the stopped integrals agree where they overlap, and they join into one process. That process is a local martingale, and the expectation identities of the square-integrable construction can fail for it. General localization is beyond this lesson.

In plain words A continuously adjusted position is approximated by positions that change at finitely many dates, and the gains of the approximations settle down in mean square, because the isometry turns closeness of the positions into closeness of the gains. The Itô integral is the limiting gain. It is a random variable defined up to probability zero, not a pathwise Riemann-Stieltjes integral, which Brownian paths of infinite variation would not allow.

Example For Ht=WtH_t = W_t on [0,1][0, 1], take the left-endpoint step processes Ht(n)=WtkH^{(n)}_t = W_{t_k} for t∈(tk,tk+1]t \in (t_k, t_{k+1}] with tk=k/nt_k = k/n. Since E[(Wt−Wtk)2]=t−tk\mathbb{E}[(W_t - W_{t_k})^2] = t - t_k,

∥H(n)−W∥2=∑k=0n−1∫tktk+1(t−tk) dt=n⋅12n2=12n,\begin{aligned} &\lVert H^{(n)} - W \rVert^2 \\[0.4em] &\quad = \sum_{k=0}^{n-1} \int_{t_k}^{t_{k+1}} (t - t_k) \, dt \\[0.4em] &\quad = n \cdot \frac{1}{2n^2} = \frac{1}{2n} , \end{aligned}

so the sums ∑kWtkΔWk\sum_k W_{t_k} \Delta W_k converge in mean square to ∫01Wt dWt\int_0^1 W_t \, dW_t, whose value the last card computes. The isometry gives its second moment ∥W∥2=12\lVert W \rVert^2 = \tfrac12 before that value is known.

Martingale property of the Itô integral

Definition Let HH be a square-integrable integrand on [0,T][0, T] and Mt=∫0tHs dWsM_t = \int_0^t H_s \, dW_s for 0≤t≤T0 \le t \le T. Then MM is a square-integrable martingale with respect to (Ft)(\mathcal{F}_t) under P\mathbb{P}, with M0=0M_0 = 0, so

E[Mt∣Fs]=Ms,0≤s≤t≤T,\begin{gathered} \mathbb{E}[M_t \mid \mathcal{F}_s] = M_s , \\[0.4em] 0 \le s \le t \le T , \end{gathered}

and in particular E[Mt]=0\mathbb{E}[M_t] = 0. For a simple integrand, refine the partition so that ss and tt are partition times. Then Mt−MsM_t - M_s is a sum of terms HkΔWkH_k \Delta W_k with tk≥st_k \ge s, and the tower rule gives

E[HkΔWk∣Fs]=E[Hk E[ΔWk∣Ftk]∣Fs]=0.\begin{aligned} &\mathbb{E}[H_k \Delta W_k \mid \mathcal{F}_s] \\[0.4em] &= \mathbb{E}\bigl[H_k \, \mathbb{E}[\Delta W_k \mid \mathcal{F}_{t_k}] \bigm| \mathcal{F}_s\bigr] \\[0.4em] &= 0 . \end{aligned}

For a general HH the property passes to the limit, because Mt(n)→MtM^{(n)}_t \to M_t in L2(P)L^2(\mathbb{P}) for each tt and conditional expectation does not increase mean-square distances. The same argument gives the conditional isometry

E[(Mt−Ms)2∣Fs]=E[∫stHu2 du∣Fs].\begin{aligned} &\mathbb{E}\bigl[(M_t - M_s)^2 \bigm| \mathcal{F}_s\bigr] \\[0.4em] &\quad = \mathbb{E}\Bigl[\int_s^t H_u^2 \, du \Bigm| \mathcal{F}_s\Bigr]. \end{aligned}

If HH is deterministic with ∫0THt2 dt<∞\int_0^T H_t^2 \, dt < \infty, then MtM_t is normal with mean 00 and variance ∫0tHs2 ds\int_0^t H_s^2 \, ds, since it is a mean-square limit of sums of independent normal variables. A random predictable HH keeps the martingale property but in general loses the normal law. When only ∫0THt2 dt<∞\int_0^T H_t^2 \, dt < \infty almost surely, MM is in general only a local martingale.

In plain words Given everything known at time ss, the expected future gain of a square-integrable predictable strategy against a driftless Brownian price is zero, however the strategy reacts to the past. A pricing argument that sets the expectation of a stochastic integral to zero needs this square integrability, or another condition that makes the local martingale a true martingale.

Example In the constructed holding, M0.5=2W0.5M_{0.5} = 2 W_{0.5}, and given F0.5\mathcal{F}_{0.5} the second-half gain H1ΔW1H_1 \Delta W_1 has conditional mean H1⋅0=0H_1 \cdot 0 = 0, so E[M1∣F0.5]=M0.5\mathbb{E}[M_1 \mid \mathcal{F}_{0.5}] = M_{0.5}. Its conditional variance is 1⋅0.5=0.51 \cdot 0.5 = 0.5 after a rise and 9⋅0.5=4.59 \cdot 0.5 = 4.5 after a fall, and the average 2.52.5 of these two values is the second-half contribution to the isometry. The gain M1M_1 is not normal. Expanding (2W0.5+H1ΔW1)3(2 W_{0.5} + H_1 \Delta W_1)^3, the terms with odd powers of ΔW1\Delta W_1 and the term 8W0.538 W_{0.5}^3 have mean zero. The remaining term 6W0.5H12(ΔW1)26 W_{0.5} H_1^2 (\Delta W_1)^2 has mean 3 E[W0.5H12]3\, \mathbb{E}[W_{0.5} H_1^2], because E[(ΔW1)2∣F0.5]=0.5\mathbb{E}[(\Delta W_1)^2 \mid \mathcal{F}_{0.5}] = 0.5, so

E[M13]=3 E[W0.5H12]=−24 E[(W0.5)+]=−12π≈−6.770,\begin{aligned} \mathbb{E}[M_1^3] &= 3 \, \mathbb{E}\bigl[W_{0.5} H_1^2\bigr] \\[0.4em] &= -24 \, \mathbb{E}\bigl[(W_{0.5})^{+}\bigr] \\[0.4em] &= -\frac{12}{\sqrt{\pi}} \approx -6.770 , \end{aligned}

using E[W0.5H12]=(1−9) E[(W0.5)+]\mathbb{E}[W_{0.5} H_1^2] = (1 - 9)\, \mathbb{E}[(W_{0.5})^{+}] and E[(W0.5)+]=0.5/2π\mathbb{E}[(W_{0.5})^{+}] = \sqrt{0.5}/\sqrt{2\pi}. A centered normal variable has third moment zero, so the law of the gain is skewed to the left, because the larger position is held after a fall.

Left-endpoint convention

Definition The Itô integral evaluates the integrand at the left endpoint of each interval. For a continuous adapted process HH, the sums ∑kHtk(Wtk+1−Wtk)\sum_k H_{t_k} (W_{t_{k+1}} - W_{t_k}) over partitions of [0,t][0, t] converge in probability to ∫0tHs dWs\int_0^t H_s \, dW_s as the mesh tends to zero, a result stated here. For H=WH = W the limit can be computed. Each increment of the square satisfies

Wtk+12−Wtk2=2WtkΔWk+(ΔWk)2,\begin{aligned} &W_{t_{k+1}}^2 - W_{t_k}^2 \\[0.4em] &\quad = 2 W_{t_k} \Delta W_k + (\Delta W_k)^2 , \end{aligned}

and summing over a partition of [0,t][0, t] telescopes, since W0=0W_0 = 0, to

∑kWtkΔWk=12(Wt2−∑k(ΔWk)2).\begin{aligned} &\sum_k W_{t_k} \Delta W_k \\[0.4em] &= \tfrac12 \Bigl(W_t^2 - \sum_k (\Delta W_k)^2\Bigr). \end{aligned}

The quadratic sum converges to tt in mean square, because the squared increments are independent with Var⁡((ΔWk)2)=2(tk+1−tk)2\operatorname{Var}\bigl((\Delta W_k)^2\bigr) = 2 (t_{k+1} - t_k)^2, so its mean-square distance from tt is 2∑k(tk+1−tk)22 \sum_k (t_{k+1} - t_k)^2, at most twice tt times the mesh. Hence

∫0tWs dWs=12(Wt2−t).\int_0^t W_s \, dW_s = \tfrac12 \bigl(W_t^2 - t\bigr) .

Right-endpoint sums ∑kWtk+1ΔWk\sum_k W_{t_{k+1}} \Delta W_k exceed the left-endpoint sums by exactly ∑k(ΔWk)2\sum_k (\Delta W_k)^2, so they converge to 12(Wt2+t)\tfrac12 (W_t^2 + t), and the gap does not shrink as the grid is refined. Sums that use the average 12(Wtk+Wtk+1)\tfrac12 (W_{t_k} + W_{t_{k+1}}) telescope to exactly 12Wt2\tfrac12 W_t^2 for every partition, the value of the Stratonovich integral, whose theory is beyond this lesson.

In plain words The left endpoint is the position chosen before the price move, which is what a trader can actually do. The right endpoint uses the price at the end of the interval and so knows the move in advance, and in this arithmetic model that hindsight earns on average exactly the elapsed time, however fine the grid.

Example On a constructed path with the three increments 0.20.2, −0.1-0.1 and 0.40.4, the levels at the left endpoints are 00, 0.20.2 and 0.10.1, so the left-endpoint sum is 0−0.02+0.04=0.020 - 0.02 + 0.04 = 0.02. The final level is 0.50.5 and the quadratic sum is 0.04+0.01+0.16=0.210.04 + 0.01 + 0.16 = 0.21, and indeed 12(0.25−0.21)=0.02\tfrac12 (0.25 - 0.21) = 0.02. The right-endpoint sum is 0.04−0.01+0.20=0.230.04 - 0.01 + 0.20 = 0.23, larger by exactly the quadratic sum 0.210.21, and the average-endpoint sum is 0.125=12(0.5)20.125 = \tfrac12 (0.5)^2. These identities hold exactly on every path and every partition. Only the replacement of the quadratic sum by tt needs the limit.

Check yourself

  1. Let I=∫01t dWtI = \int_0^1 t \, dW_t. Find the law of II and the probability P(I>1)\mathbb{P}(I > 1).
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The integrand is deterministic with

∫01t2 dt=13,\int_0^1 t^2 \, dt = \tfrac13 ,

so II is normal with mean 00 and variance 13\tfrac13. The threshold 11 lies 1/1/3=31/\sqrt{1/3} = \sqrt{3} standard deviations above the mean, and

P(I>1)=1−Φ(3)≈0.04163.\begin{aligned} \mathbb{P}(I > 1) &= 1 - \Phi(\sqrt{3}) \\[0.4em] &\approx 0.04163 . \end{aligned}
  1. Compute E[(∫01Wt dWt)2]\mathbb{E}\bigl[(\int_0^1 W_t \, dW_t)^2\bigr] with the isometry, and check the answer with the formula from the left-endpoint card.
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The integrand WW is square integrable, and by Fubini’s theorem

E[∫01Wt2 dt]=∫01t dt=12.\begin{aligned} \mathbb{E}\Bigl[\int_0^1 W_t^2 \, dt\Bigr] &= \int_0^1 t \, dt \\[0.4em] &= \tfrac12 . \end{aligned}

The formula gives ∫01Wt dWt=12(W12−1)\int_0^1 W_t \, dW_t = \tfrac12 (W_1^2 - 1), whose mean is 00 because E[W12]=1\mathbb{E}[W_1^2] = 1. Its second moment is

14 E[(W12−1)2]=14(E[W14]−1)=14(3−1)=12,\begin{aligned} &\tfrac14 \, \mathbb{E}\bigl[(W_1^2 - 1)^2\bigr] \\[0.4em] &\quad = \tfrac14 \bigl(\mathbb{E}[W_1^4] - 1\bigr) \\[0.4em] &\quad = \tfrac14 (3 - 1) = \tfrac12 , \end{aligned}

the same value, using E[W14]=3\mathbb{E}[W_1^4] = 3 and E[W12]=1\mathbb{E}[W_1^2] = 1 for a standard normal variable.

  1. Change the constructed rule so that the second-half position is 33 units when the price will rise over the second half year and 11 unit otherwise, and let G=2W0.5+H1ΔW1G = 2 W_{0.5} + H_1 \Delta W_1 with this new H1H_1. Find E[G]\mathbb{E}[G], and explain why GG is not an Itô integral even though E∫01Ht2 dt\mathbb{E}\int_0^1 H_t^2 \, dt is still 4.54.5.
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Write Y=ΔW1Y = \Delta W_1, which is normal with mean 00 and variance 0.50.5. The second term equals 3Y3Y when Y>0Y > 0 and YY otherwise. By symmetry E[Y1{Y≤0}]=−E[Y+]\mathbb{E}[Y \mathbf{1}_{\{Y \le 0\}}] = -\mathbb{E}[Y^{+}], so

E[H1Y]=(3−1) E[Y+]=2⋅0.52π=1π,\begin{aligned} \mathbb{E}[H_1 Y] &= (3 - 1)\, \mathbb{E}[Y^{+}] \\[0.4em] &= 2 \cdot \frac{\sqrt{0.5}}{\sqrt{2\pi}} = \frac{1}{\sqrt{\pi}} , \end{aligned}

about 0.56420.5642, while 2W0.52 W_{0.5} has mean 00. So E[G]≈0.5642\mathbb{E}[G] \approx 0.5642 currency units. The squared positions are 44 and then 99 or 11 with probability 12\tfrac12 each, so E∫01Ht2 dt=2+2.5=4.5\mathbb{E}\int_0^1 H_t^2 \, dt = 2 + 2.5 = 4.5 as before, but the zero mean and the isometry are theorems about predictable integrands. Here H1H_1 depends on YY, which is not known at time 0.50.5, so the step E[H1Y∣F0.5]=H1 E[Y∣F0.5]\mathbb{E}[H_1 Y \mid \mathcal{F}_{0.5}] = H_1 \, \mathbb{E}[Y \mid \mathcal{F}_{0.5}] is false. The second moment of GG happens to be 4.54.5 as well, but its variance is 4.5−1/π≈4.1824.5 - 1/\pi \approx 4.182. A positive average gain from a rule that looks ahead is the continuous-time form of look-ahead bias in a backtest.

How this lesson connects