An implied volatility is the root of an equation, the volatility at which a model price matches a quote. A solver can print it to sixteen digits, but how many of them does the quote actually determine, and how many can the arithmetic deliver? The first question is about the equation, the second about the algorithm and the floating-point numbers it works with. This lesson separates conditioning from stability, shows how subtracting nearly equal numbers destroys digits, derives the error bound of bisection and the local quadratic convergence of Newton’s method, and gives a cubic on which Newton’s method cycles forever.
Key terms
Problem conditioning
Definition Let be continuously differentiable on an open interval containing a root of the equation , and suppose . By the inverse function theorem, for data near the equation has a unique solution near , and
The absolute condition number of the root is . When and , the relative condition number is
To first order a change in the data moves the root by , so and . Conditioning is a property of the problem, the map from data to solution, and it is defined in exact arithmetic before any algorithm is chosen. Which of the two numbers is informative depends on how the uncertainty in the data is measured.
In plain words The condition number is the factor by which an error in the data is amplified in the answer, even when every calculation is exact. Where the function is flat at the root, a small change in the target slides the root a long way.
Example For the root is and , so and . A relative error of in the target moves the root by a relative amount of about . For an implied volatility the data is a call price , the function is the Black-Scholes price , and its derivative is the vega , so . Take constructed inputs , and . A one-year call with has price about and vega about currency units per unit of volatility, so a price uncertainty of moves by about . A three-month call with has price about and vega about , so the same moves by about to first order, and solving exactly at the prices and gives implied volatilities of about and . The relative condition number of this second root is only about , but an uncertainty of is about percent of its price, so here the absolute number is the informative one.
Numerical stability
Definition An algorithm returns a computed value for the data . Its forward error is , and its residual is , the mismatch in the equation. Since solves exactly, the size of the residual is the absolute backward error of , the change in the data for which is an exact root. An algorithm is backward stable when every answer it computes is the exact answer for data that differ from the given data by a relative amount of the order of the unit roundoff, the largest relative rounding error of the arithmetic. Stability is a property of the algorithm. To first order, a backward-stable algorithm applied to a problem with relative condition number has a relative forward error of at most about times its relative backward error. A rigorous link between residual and forward error comes from the mean value theorem. If is differentiable on an interval that contains and , and for every in , then
because for some between them. Without a lower bound on the derivative, a small residual says nothing about the forward error.
In plain words Stability belongs to the algorithm and conditioning to the problem. A stable algorithm answers a slightly different question exactly, and conditioning decides whether that answer is close to the answer of the question that was asked. A small residual means the equation is nearly satisfied, which is not the same as the root being nearly found.
Example For and the residual is . On , which contains both and , the derivative is at least , so , and the actual error is about . For with root , the value has residual but forward error , because vanishes at the root and no positive exists on an interval around it. For the three-month call of the previous card, a stable solver returns the root of the stated equation to many digits, yet if the quote itself is known only to within , the volatility it implies is uncertain by about .
Floating-point cancellation
Definition In IEEE double precision with rounding to nearest, a real number in the normal range is stored as with , and each basic operation returns its exact result rounded in the same way. If and are stored with such relative errors, then
so the relative error of the difference can be as large as . This loss of relative accuracy when nearly equal rounded numbers are subtracted is called cancellation. The subtraction adds at most one rounding of its own. The damage comes from the errors already present in its inputs, which the subtraction exposes. The cure is to rewrite the formula so that the small quantity is computed without the subtraction. Multiplying by the conjugate gives the identity
valid for every real , whose right side involves no cancellation when .
In plain words Two large numbers that agree in their leading digits each carry a rounding error in their last digits. Their difference keeps those errors while losing the agreeing digits, so what remains can be mostly error. Algebra can often reach the same value by a route that never subtracts nearly equal numbers.
Example Take the constructed value . Doubles near are spaced apart, so is rounded to , its square root is exactly , and the left side evaluates to . The true value is about , and the right side evaluates to with a relative error of about , below . At the left side already returns about against the true , wrong in the third digit. The rewrite fixes this cancellation and nothing else. For above about the square overflows, and a scaled computation of , such as the library function hypot, is needed as well. The same effect appears in finance when or is evaluated for a tiny rate. For the direct difference has a relative error of about , which is why numerical libraries provide expm1 and log1p.
Bisection method
Definition Let be continuous on with . For compute the midpoint . If , stop. Otherwise keep the half on which the sign changes, setting when and otherwise. By the intermediate value theorem every bracket contains a root. The brackets are nested with widths , so they shrink to a single point , which is a root by continuity, and in exact arithmetic
Hence halvings guarantee an error of at most , one binary digit per step. The method needs no derivative. A sign change proves that a root exists, not that it is unique, and uniqueness needs another argument such as strict monotonicity. In floating point the bracket stops shrinking once its endpoints are neighboring doubles, because their midpoint then rounds to one of them.
In plain words Bisection keeps a bracket on which the function changes sign and halves it at every step. It cannot get lost, and after steps it has located a root to within half the remaining width, but it gains only one binary digit per step.
Example For on the function is continuous and strictly increasing, so the root is unique. The brackets after one to six halvings are , , , , and . The midpoint of the last one is within of the root, inside the bound . In double precision, after halvings the bracket width is , the spacing of doubles between and , the endpoints are the neighboring doubles and on either side of , and further halvings change nothing. Continuity cannot be dropped. The function equal to for and to for changes sign on and has no root, yet bisection closes in on its jump at .
Newton’s method and quadratic convergence
Definition For a differentiable and an iterate with , Newton’s method sets the tangent line equal to zero, which gives
A sequence converges to quadratically when its errors satisfy for some constant and all large , so that once is small the number of correct digits roughly doubles at each step. The basic local result follows from Taylor’s theorem. Let be twice continuously differentiable on an open interval containing a simple root , meaning and . Expanding about with the Lagrange remainder and evaluating at , where , gives
for some between and , and dividing by gives
Choose so that on and , where is the maximum of on divided by twice the minimum of on . Then every start in gives , so the iterates stay in and converge to quadratically, with as long as no iterate lands exactly on the root. The theorem is local. It says nothing about a distant start, and its hypothesis excludes repeated roots.
In plain words Newton’s method replaces the function by its tangent line and jumps to the zero of the tangent. Near a simple root the tangent is an excellent model, the error is squared at each step, and correct digits accumulate very quickly. Far from the root the tangent can point anywhere.
Example For the step is . From the iterates are , , and , with errors of about , , and . The ratios are , , and , approaching . Every error from on is positive, as the error formula predicts, because and make its right side positive for every positive iterate. Four Newton steps reach an accuracy that the bisection bound on guarantees only after halvings.
Newton cycle
Definition Write for the Newton map. A Newton cycle of period is a set of distinct points , none of them a root and each with , such that for and . An iteration started on a cycle never converges. For twice continuously differentiable ,
and a cycle is attracting when the product of the values over the cycle is less than . Starts near an attracting cycle are drawn into it rather than to a root. A safeguarded method keeps a sign-change bracket, accepts a Newton step only when it lands inside the current bracket, and bisects otherwise. It keeps the containment of bisection, and near a simple root it typically regains the speed of Newton’s method.
In plain words The local theorem promises speed near a simple root and nothing elsewhere. Away from the root, tangent steps can bounce between the same points forever, and a nearby start can be pulled into the same loop.
Example Take , with , and start at . Since and , the step gives . Since and , the next step gives , and the iteration repeats forever. Moreover , so and the cycle is attracting. In exact arithmetic the start produces about , , and , and the iterates close in on the cycle. The cubic has a single real root, about , because its discriminant is negative. Since , bisection on finds it, and Newton’s method started at reaches it to full double precision in five steps, because is about at the root, far from zero.
Check yourself
- With , and , the Black-Scholes call price is continuous and strictly increasing in , and a quote lies strictly between the model prices at and . How many bisection halvings of guarantee that the midpoint is within of the implied volatility, and what does that guarantee leave out?
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The function is continuous and changes sign on the bracket, and strict monotonicity makes its root unique. The bound requires
that is . Since is too small and is enough, and halvings suffice. Indeed , while halvings only give . The guarantee is about the root of the equation with this quote in exact arithmetic. It leaves out the uncertainty of the quote itself, which conditioning turns into volatility uncertainty of about , and the limit set by double precision once the bracket endpoints become neighboring doubles.
- For the constructed one-year call with and , the quote is the Black-Scholes price at . At the model price is and the vega is . Compute the Newton step , then use the error formula to predict the size and sign of the next error, given that at the vega is and .
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The function is , so and
Its error is . Near the root the error formula gives , and the coefficient is
so . The second iterate should lie just below , at about , and a direct second Newton step gives . The sign is negative because the second derivative is negative here. The error went from about to about in one step, as quadratic convergence predicts.
- Apply Newton’s method to from . Find the iterates and the rate of convergence, name the hypothesis of the local theorem that fails, and compare the residual with the error after ten steps.
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The step is
so . The iterates are , , and so on, with . The convergence is linear with ratio , not quadratic. The failed hypothesis is , since is a double root and . After ten steps the residual is , about a thousand times smaller than the error, so a stopping rule that asks for a residual below would stop here with only about three correct digits. No positive lower bound on exists near the root, so the residual bound cannot repair this. Bisection cannot even start, because never changes sign.